Tsai Ing-wen took office more than four months ago. The current cross-strait situation since she was elected on January 16 this year can be summed up in three sentences. First, Tsai Ing-wen will never acknowledge the “1992 Consensus” nor admit that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China. Second, there is no suspense that she will be re-elected and in power for eight years. Third, the Kuomintang (KMT) will soon fall apart, and the Pan-Blue Camp will no longer exist; so, the Pan-Green Camp will be in power for at least two decades. Twenty years from now, the Pan-Green Camp ruling will be more consolidated. On these three core points, I have published three long essays this year and made detailed studies and explanations.
There are three unexpected situations in the cross-strait development.
The first is that the mainland did not expect Tsai Ing-wen and Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP’s) willpower and determination in adhering to Taiwan independence.
Many, among the mainland government and people including the party, political and military officials working on the Taiwan-related matters at all levels as well as scholars doing research in Taiwan-related areas, do not understand Taiwan. During reform and opening up for more than 30 years, the mainland wholeheartedly engaged in seeking development, and held an attitude of emphasizing money for many things. From the perspective of money, Taiwan's economy is mainly dependent on the mainland, and currently amounts to only one twentieth of mainland's total. It has a near zero growth. Any Taiwan political leader knows that even if to be able to survive economically, Taiwan must have a good relationship with the mainland, must recognize the “1992 Consensus” and must acknowledge the two sides belonging to one China. However, the mainland officials and scholars simply do not understand that Tsai Ing-wen and some of the DPP core members do not regard money as a top priority. They rather strive courageously, vigorously, and advance wave upon wave for the Taiwan independence ideal with a fearlessly heroic spirit. Not only do they not regard money as a top priority, they are even not afraid of dying for their ideal. The mainland officials and scholars believe that it is necessary for the mainland to take the first step by reducing the number of tourists to Taiwan, followed by not implementing cross-strait economic and trade agreements to boycott Taiwan economically, and finally by engaging in aggressive diplomacy to reduce the number of countries sharing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. They wish that these strategies will wear out the Tsai Ing-wen government economically, politically and diplomatically. In the end, they will force Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP to come to terms to recognize the “1992 Consensus” and the two sides belonging to one China. This is simply daydreaming. The actions of Tsai Ing-wen’s government will soon make these mainland officials and scholars come to their senses, and realize that they are completely wrong. In this world, not all problems can be resolved by the yuan. The time for their repentance is only within the next year or two. The KMT will soon collapse. The Pan-Blue Camp will no longer exist. Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. There will be no suspense, because she will have no opponent. Hung Hsiu-chu, Eric Chu, Wu Den-yi, Hao Long-bin, Sean Lien, Ko Wen-je, James Soong, David Wang and so on, are not strong enough to be Tsai's competitors. After Tsai Ing-wen’s eight years in power, the Pan-Green Camp will continue their long-term rule with no Pan-Blue opponents.
The second unexpected situation is that Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP underestimated the willpower and determination of the mainland of China in completing the sacred task of reunifying our motherland.
Basically, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP do not understand the mainland of China and the Chinese civilization. The mainland is a secular society full of eating, drinking, men and women. The poor eat, drink, play and are merry, while the rich go dining, wining, whoring, gambling and smoking. Nothing is sacred. Currently the only sacred thing expressly stipulated is the task of reunifying the motherland. Why is the reunification of the motherland the only sacred task since the ancient secular Chinese civilization? The Xia, Shang and Zhou dynasties lasted for three thousand years, but the actual areas within their control were not very large. The China which led the world history by two thousand years was mainly established by Emperor Qin (Qin Shihuang) of the Qin dynasty and Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty. Qin Shihuang, the eternal emperor, unified the territories inside and outside the Great Wall and the north and south of the Yangtze River to reach the coast of today’s Guangdong and Fujian Provinces. Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty was a man of great talent and bold vision. He inherited the great reunification mission of Qin Shihuang and commanded Wei Qing, Huo Qubing and other great commanders who fought for nearly forty years to eradicate the northern power of Huns and took today’s Outer Mongolia and the Hexi Corridor. Then from the Hexi Corridor he took Xinjiang and established today’s Hainan Province in the south. Those who attacked the Han territory, even located far away, must be punished. Emperor Qin and Emperor Wu established China despite causing the dead bodies piling up like a mountain and blood flowing like a river. In the Yuan Dynasty (1271－1368), more than 700 years ago, Tibet entered the family of the motherland. Taiwan has been a part of China since ancient times. It has been over a thousand years since the Sui and the Tang dynasties. These years includes the more recent eras of Zheng Chenggong and Liu Mingchua. In 1888 (during the Qing dynasty, 1644–1912), China formally established the Taiwan Province. In 1895, because of China’s failure in the Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895), Taiwan was ceded to Japan. In 1945, China recovered Taiwan from Japan after the victory of China's war against the Japanese invasion. The failure of the Sino-Japanese War and the cession of Taiwan to Japan represent important symbols of China’s humiliation in the past century. Any Chinese could not help but feel sorrow for what happened. And for two thousand years since Emperor Qin and Emperor Wu, most reunifications of China involved bloody wars. Today, China is the world's second-largest economy with the world's second-largest military spending, and is on its way to surpass the United States. Now, in the Taiwan Strait theater, the Chinese armed forces have achieved strategic superiority over the American and Japanese armed forces. Currently, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP do not want to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus and the fact that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China. They are accelerating an all-round Taiwan independence in culture, ideology, education and society to eliminate any hope for peaceful reunification. This is China's humiliation. This is an insult to the Chinese people, the Chinese army, the Chinese ruling party and the Chinese leaders. If this can be tolerated, then what can be called intolerable? The wishful thinking of Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP is that, after the mainland reduces tourists to Taiwan, makes economic sanctions against Taiwan and engages in aggressive diplomacy over Taiwan, the DPP will remain steadfast and the mainland will have to admit the reality and surrender to Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP. This is daydreaming. Within a year or two, when the mainland exhausts peaceful means and confirms that peaceful reunification is hopeless, the date will come for the Taiwan independence force to perish. For over two thousand years, from Emperor Qin to Emperor Wu to Mao Zedong, the essence of the Chinese country has not been putting money above everything else, but to undertake the great reunification of the motherland. If there is no hope of peaceful reunification anymore, who would dare to sit back and watch? The Beijing authorities absolutely will not sit back and watch.
The third unexpected situation is that the US has not thought about the explosiveness of the cross-strait development.
The United States only knows that Osama bin Laden was not afraid of death and the Islamic State is not afraid of death. The United States simply cannot imagine that Tsai Ing-wen and some of the DPP core members are also not afraid of death. The United States believes that it can manage Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and henceforth Tsai Ing-wen. But the United States does not know that Tsai Ing-wen is exceptionally brave and resourceful and has enough political wisdom, so that the United States cannot control her. If the United States cannot control Tsai, how can it be possible to control the mainland? It is simply a joke. Xi Jinping is Red China’s new master. Xi Jinping dares to send sea and air forces to the Diaoyu Islands, establish the East China Sea aviation identification area, and make large-scale reclamation land in the South China Sea. The Taiwan issue is a hundred times more important than other issues. If, after reducing the mainland tourists to Taiwan, economically boycotting Taiwan and applying aggressive diplomacy to isolate Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP still stand firm by not acknowledging the 1992 Consensus, and Tsai Ing-wen is re-elected, does this mean that China’s new master has to accept defeat? At present, the first line US political and military officials in charge of the Taiwan Strait affairs have no great wisdom and their vision is very limited. They even do not know what and how to talk. One or two years later, if the first line US political and military officials in charge of the Taiwan Strait affairs still have no great wisdom, the result is bound to be explosive. The United States made unwise decisions in the Ukraine, misjudged Putin and caused US-Russian relations to collapse. Today, if the United States sends troops to the Taiwan Strait, it will no longer have the slightest chance of winning. If the United States makes missteps in the Taiwan Strait by misjudging the mainland, it will cause the US hegemony in the Western Pacific to collapse ahead of time.
Since January this year, I have read a few hundred articles written in Chinese or English on the Taiwan Strait issues by authors in the mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, the United States, Japan, and Europe. I agree with Jin Canrong’s “Four-Stage Theory” (金灿荣的四个阶段说), Zhu Chengghu's “Theory of Four Fantasies” (朱成虎的四个幻想说), Wang Hongguang’s “Cross-Strait War Strategies” (王洪光的台海战役方案). I have three long essays widely circulated among the global Chinese. These include: January 19, 2016, “Li Yi Sums Up the Taiwan Presidential Election Campaign: Peaceful Reunification Is No Longer Possible" (http://www.cwzg.cn/html/2016/guanfengchasu_0517/28177.html); May 15, 2016, "Li Yi Reiterates on ‘Peaceful Reunification Is No Longer Possible’" (http://www.kaiyuan.info/blog-30008-30405.html); June 12, 2016, " Li Yi Interview with the Voice of America" (http://www.wenxuecity.com/blog/201607/9619/1127831.html). I welcome criticisms.