Source: https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/348812#Will-US-use-Taiwan-to-start-a-proxy-war?

Many commentators define the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a proxy war instigated by the United States against Russia. The US and its allies do not directly participate in fighting. However, they provide Ukraine with funds, weapons, information, intelligence and logistical support and impose unprecedentedly severe financial, economic, political, diplomatic and cultural sanctions on Russia. At the same time, officials, politicians and experts from the US-led West have repeatedly warned China not to exploit this opportunity to take Taiwan by force. They indirectly trumpet that they are the defenders of peace across the Taiwan Strait.

But many people are worried or believe that the US will replicate a proxy war on China, using Taiwan as the proxy by prodding the “Taiwan independence” forces to provoke Beijing and force it to achieve national reunification in a nonpeaceful way. They believe that the US will sell and provide Taiwan with many advanced weapons, military training and strategic guidance for the purpose; while the US will not send troops before and after a cross-Strait war, it will try hard to maintain Taiwan’s combat power to the greatest extent possible. More importantly, the US will encourage or even impel its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, to send troops to defend Taiwan. The wishful thinking of the US is that it can take advantage of a proxy war against China to advance its hegemonic interests; and that even if China is not defeated in a proxy war, its economic and military power will suffer severe damage; chaos and instability will erupt in China; and China’s modernization and national rejuvenation process will encounter significant setbacks.

Michael Whitney, a renowned geopolitical and social analyst based in the state of Washington, is convinced that the US has such sinister intentions. Through an analysis of the rhetoric and actions of the US, he asserted: “The Biden administration is implementing a plan to draw Taiwan into a direct military confrontation with the People’s Republic of China. … Beijing is expected to react to mounting challenges to its territorial integrity by US proxies and their political allies operating in Taiwan. These incitements will inevitably lead to greater material support from the US which has stealthily worked behind the scenes (and in the media) to create a crisis. The ultimate objective goal of these machinations is to arm, train and provide logistical support for Taiwanese separatists who will spearhead Washington’s proxy war on China. … The strategy represents Washington’s best effort to roll back the clock to the heyday of the unipolar world order when America set the global agenda and had no rivals. … In truth, the US is laying the groundwork for a proxy war on China. … The independence movement is merely the cover Washington has chosen to conceal its real objectives.”

Even if the US political elites use Taiwan and US allies to instigate a proxy war against Beijing, they will not admit or announce it. However, if the US deems it can successfully contain China’s rise through a proxy war at a limited cost, it will likely go ahead. Nevertheless, if the US eventually does this, not only will the US fail, but it will also be sucked into a hazardous maelstrom with no exit.

First, China’s longstanding position is that it hopes to achieve national reunification peacefully and is unwilling to see compatriots on both sides of the Strait fighting each other. Even though the “Taiwan independence” advocates are becoming more vociferous and provocative, and with the US encouraging and shielding them in every possible way, Beijing has not given up the policy of peaceful reunification and will go to war only when there is no other alternative. Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law of the People’s Republic of China, enacted in 2005, stipulates: “In the event that the ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the State shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Accordingly, if the US and the “Taiwan independence” forces create a situation that violates the Anti-Secession Law, such as the Taiwan authorities officially declaring Taiwan’s de jure “independence” then China will have to recover Taiwan in a nonpeaceful way. Law professor Richard Cullen asserts that there is solid legal support, at international law, backing the view that Taiwan has long been and remains part of China, and that Beijing enjoys a right supported by international law to secure unification (internally) by using force as a last resort. Today, all countries that recognize the People’s Republic of China or the Republic of China agree that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. Hence, if Beijing uses force against Taiwan because the latter declares “independence”, these countries, including the US and its allies, will have no legal and moral grounds for going to war against the Chinese mainland to defend Taiwan. It follows that launching a war against the mainland with Taiwan and some US allies as proxies is not legitimate according to international law.

Even if the US finally decides to go to war with the Chinese mainland to defend Taiwan, it has no certainty of victory. Under all circumstances, it must pay an unbearable price, including ending the US’ global hegemony

Second, apart from feeling that there is no legal basis for military intervention in China’s internal affairs, the US allies lack enough incentives to go to war with China or impose sanctions on China. Instead, they have more solid reasons to stay out of it. The US allies might believe that, after recovering Taiwan, Beijing will be more assertive and pose a more-significant strategic “threat” to them. Still, they will not fear an “existential threat” by China. They all have very close economic ties with China, and a war with China would cause unbearable harm to their economic interests. More importantly, without the participation of the US, they have no chance to defeat China militarily. Fighting against China is just hitting a stone with a pebble, and only fools who ignore national interests will do so. Furthermore, even if the US joins the war, China will not necessarily be defeated, and it will only bring about a protracted war that would harm all countries.

Third, if the US declares that it will not go to war with the Chinese mainland over Taiwan, the “Taiwan independence” forces will not be willing or bold enough to “excessively” provoke Beijing and force it to take military action against Taiwan. No matter how much military and economic support the US gives Taiwan, Taiwan’s military strength is far inferior to that of the mainland, and the will of Taiwan residents to fight is relatively weak. US military experts generally believe that Taiwan lacks thorough, sufficient, and wise military planning and training to push back the mainland’s military offense, and it relies too much on heavy weapons that would have limited use in a cross-Strait war. An Independent Task Force Report on Taiwan by the Council on Foreign Relations, published in 2023, admits that “indirect US support in the form of weapons and intelligence will not be enough; absent direct US military intervention, Taiwan’s military likely does not have the ability to resist a Chinese invasion”. Furthermore, “Taiwan’s military conducts largely scripted exercises, its junior leaders are not empowered to make battlefield decisions, and its training is inadequate. The reality is that only sustained US attention, training, and pressure can change these dynamics.” Suppose the strategic purpose of the mainland’s use of force is not to occupy Taiwan for a long time immediately but to attack the “Taiwan independence” forces severely to punish them. In that case, the mainland can damage Taiwan’s infrastructure and military facilities in a very short period. Severe damage can be done on the island, and the cross-Strait war can be ended quickly without the mainland incurring a huge cost. More importantly, Taiwan is overly dependent on external supplies for energy and food, and its cables connecting the world can be easily damaged. Once the mainland imposes an all-around and long-term blockade on Taiwan, Taiwan’s combat effectiveness will collapse abruptly, and it will be unable to conduct a proxy war on behalf of the US.

Fourth, today, although many Taiwan residents are not enthusiastic about national reunification, they are increasingly worried about a cross-Strait war, and their confidence in the US coming to Taiwan’s defense is minimal. Some people of insight in Taiwan have publicly opposed the use of Taiwan by the US to launch a proxy war against the mainland. Therefore, even if the “Taiwan independence” forces provoked the mainland into a cross-Strait war under the coercion and lure of the US, they would not be able to garner the support of most Taiwanese residents. Under the circumstance that the US will not intervene militarily, the “Taiwan independence” elements will not dare to go to war against the mainland because they are worried that losing the proxy war — and hence losing Taiwan — would allow the mainland to hold them accountable for treason.

Fifth, the US has already spent many resources on the proxy war in Ukraine. While Russia has suffered heavy losses because of this war, the US has yet to achieve its strategic goal of destroying Russia and the Vladimir Putin regime. The Russia-Ukraine war is bound to be a long war of attrition. The US and its allies may not be able to sustain this proxy war, which will likely end in the US’ failure. Professor John J Mearsheimer recently asserted: “I believe Russia will win the war, which means it will end up conquering and annexing substantial Ukrainian territory, leaving Ukraine as a dysfunctional rump state. If I am correct, this will be a grievous defeat for Ukraine and the West.” If the US loses the proxy war in Ukraine and still needs to invest resources in Europe for a long time, the incentive to launch a proxy war against China will tumble.

Finally, even if the US can induce or force Taiwan and its allies to launch a proxy war against the Chinese mainland, since they cannot be the mainland’s opponents, and Beijing may take the opportunity to recover Taiwan, the US will have to face the dilemma of whether to go to war with China. American think-tanker Emma Ashford maintains that public opinion strongly opposes fighting the Chinese mainland directly over Taiwan. War games suggest that such a choice could be disastrous for the US. Many US military experts have pointed out that the current state of US armaments and industrial production capacity are both in deplorable condition, so there is no certainty of defeating a peer competitor like China.

In short, it is difficult for the US to use Taiwan and its allies to instigate a proxy war against the Chinese mainland. Even if it starts a proxy war, it will not succeed. Instead, it will give Beijing enough legitimate grounds to regain Taiwan by nonpeaceful means. Even if the US finally decides to go to war with the Chinese mainland to defend Taiwan, it has no certainty of victory. Under all circumstances, it must pay an unbearable price, including ending the US’ global hegemony. If, in the end, the US uses Taiwan to wage a proxy war against the Chinese mainland, that will prove to be the most disastrous, bizarre, and dumb strategic blunder the US has ever made.

The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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